World Bank warns: Anti-corruption protests will spread 

In recent months, anti-government protests have gripped parts of Africa, fueled by rising public anger over high-level corruption and economic mismanagement.

The World Bank, in its October 2024 Africa’s Pulse report, has sounded an alarm over the potential for these protests to spread, warning of a ripple effect driven by deep-rooted socio-economic issues. The report highlights increasing economic challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa, where a combination of rising living costs, corruption, and governance failures has contributed to a volatile environment.

Young people, particularly disillusioned by lack of economic opportunities and rising inequality, have taken to the streets in countries like Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda. In Kenya, protests recently pressured the government to enact significant changes, including the dismissal of almost the entire cabinet in response to public outcry over new tax proposals.

Similarly, in Uganda, demonstrations targeting alleged corruption by senior officials, including the parliamentary speaker, shined a bright light on the growing frustration with entrenched power structures resistant to accountability.

“The high cost of living, corruption and, more broadly, weak governance have triggered protests and palpable anger among the youth in Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda—unrest that could spread throughout the region,” the World Bank report warns.

This unrest reflects a deeper frustration with ineffective public systems and economic stagnation, with many citizens viewing government institutions as unable or unwilling to foster sustained growth and reduce long-standing inequalities.

According to the report, “The discontent and lack of trust in the government reflect the population’s perception that state institutions are unable to foster inclusive and sustained growth and narrow structural inequalities. In this context, the region needs more reforms for a working economy.”

The World Bank emphasizes that without meaningful reforms targeting economic inclusion and inequality, this discontent may spread across the region, posing further risks to stability and growth.

Drivers of Social Unrest: Corruption, Cost of Living and Governance Issues

In Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda, recent protests have been marked by growing public frustration over escalating living costs, and governance issues.

A major contributor to these tensions is corruption, which has eroded trust in public institutions and stifled efforts to address economic disparities. The World Bank warns that as the cost of basic goods rises, many Sub-Saharan African citizens are finding it increasingly difficult to meet daily expenses, making social inequality more evident and amplifying discontent, especially among the young and unemployed.

The World Bank notes that this dissatisfaction if left unaddressed, could have regional implications. High levels of youth unemployment, combined with a perceived lack of opportunity, create fertile ground for further unrest across the continent. In nations like Uganda, where over 75 per cent of the population is under 30, economic exclusion could result in prolonged instability, underscoring the urgency for government-led reforms.

In July 2024, Ugandan security forces arrested dozens of demonstrators attempting to march to the parliament building in Kampala to protest high-level corruption. Authorities had deemed the protests illegal, prompting a heavy deployment of police and military personnel throughout the city, particularly in areas where small groups of protesters had assembled.

Some demonstrators faced rough treatment, with police forcibly loading campaigners into trucks. Ugandan authorities have frequently used force to disperse demonstrations, especially those organized by opposition leaders and civic groups. The protests were inspired by recent events in neighboring Kenya, where public pressure and mass demonstrations led Kenyan President William Ruto to dismiss nearly
his entire cabinet following opposition to proposed new taxes.

Ugandan demonstrators similarly sought to bring attention to corruption, particularly involving parliamentary Speaker Anita Among, who has faced calls for resignation after allegations surfaced of irregular expenditures by her office and associates. Among has denied these allegations and resisted calls to step down.

Reform Imperatives: Fiscal Policy Changes to Address Structural Inequality

In response to these challenges, the World Bank recommends comprehensive fiscal policy reforms that emphasize both efficiency and equity. Current fiscal policies are perceived as favouring the elite, which has fueled a sense of economic marginalization among lower-income and disadvantaged populations.

A “fiscal compact” that prioritizes equitable public spending could help ensure that essential services like education, healthcare, and infrastructure reach a broader demographic.

“Fiscal policies that tackle inequality are critical—particularly for defining a fiscal compact that emphasizes both spending efficiency and equity. Leveling the playing field for the disadvantaged will also involve policies that enhance their productive capacity and provide an environment that nurtures the creation and growth of (formal) firms,” the report says.

The World Bank also stresses the need to create an environment conducive to the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly in formal employment sectors. Empowering disadvantaged communities to become productive participants in the economy would not only stimulate economic growth but also mitigate the widespread inequality that currently characterizes much of Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic landscape.

Through such structural adjustments, Sub-Saharan Africa could shift toward a more inclusive economic framework, potentially easing social tensions.

Impact of Regional Conflicts on Economic Stability and Food Security

Conflicts within the region, such as the war in Sudan, are intensifying existing challenges, notably in food security and healthcare.

The United Nations estimates that around 8.5 million Sudanese are facing severe malnutrition, with approximately 755,000 in famine conditions. With conflict-driven disruptions limiting access to essential goods and services, Sudan’s crisis serves as a stark reminder of how regional instability can destabilise Sub-Saharan Africa’s broader economy.

Rising levels of violence and the ongoing suppression of social and political dissent, the World Bank notes, are also deterring investment. For instance, uncertainty around business contracts and long-term commitments to hiring and procurement has weakened private sector confidence across the region, with firms wary of expanding operations in such an unpredictable climate.

These dynamics underscore the need for improved security and stability to restore investor confidence and sustain long-term economic growth.

Economic Growth and Inflation: Projections and Challenges

The World Bank’s latest projections indicate a fragile recovery, with Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth expected to reach three per cent in 2024, up from 2.4 per cent in 2023. This growth is largely driven by increased private consumption and investment, alongside tighter monetary and fiscal policies designed to curb inflation.

Inflation rates are expected to drop from 7.1 per cent in 2023 to 4.9 per cent in 2024 and continue to decline to 4.6 per cent by 2026. However, high debt service costs remain a considerable obstacle, particularly in countries with significant foreign debt, such as Zambia and Ghana.

Growth Disparities and Sectoral Contributions

According to the report, among the 27 Sub-Saharan African nations experiencing growth acceleration, Niger and Angola have emerged as notable outliers. Niger’s economy is anticipated to grow by 3.6 percentage points, driven by stable agricultural output and a revitalized oil sector.

Angola is also expecting growth of 2.2 percentage points, supported by a rebound in oil production following major maintenance shutdowns. However, both countries are heavily reliant on resource-based industries, underscoring their vulnerability to fluctuations in global commodity markets.

In contrast, larger economies such as Nigeria and South Africa face slower growth recoveries. Nigeria’s 2024 growth projection of 3.3 per cent remains hampered by inflationary pressures, which reached a peak of 34.2 per cent in mid-2024, according to the report. Though inflation has recently declined, continued currency devaluation and the removal of gasoline subsidies have kept costs high, challenging the efficacy of recent reforms.

South Africa’s growth outlook is similarly diminished, with projected growth rates of 1.1 per cent in 2024, despite improvements in electricity provision and planned transportation reforms.

Outlook: Pathways to Sustainable Growth and Social Stability

Looking forward, the World Bank emphasizes the importance of fostering economic resilience through targeted policy measures and sustainable investments. To address both short-term economic recovery and long-term growth, Sub-Saharan African governments may need to prioritize investment in sectors that promote productivity and self-sufficiency.

Agriculture, digital technology, and infrastructure are all sectors with the potential to drive employment, improve income distribution, and build resilience. Moreover, expanding access to social safety nets and improving governance frameworks would help reduce the inequality that fuels unrest.

Strengthening institutional transparency and accountability could reduce corruption, restoring trust in government bodies and addressing the root causes of much of the current discontent.

Sector-Specific Recovery and Structural Drivers

The report points to some light at the end of the tunnel. The World Bank notes that sectoral drivers of economic rebound are illuminating recovery pathways for Sub-Saharan African countries. Agriculture has been a particularly resilient sector, according to the bank, bolstering growth in countries like Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda.

In Kenya, a combination of favourable weather patterns and strategic agricultural investments has revitalized the sector, while macroeconomic stability, evidenced by lower inflation and a stable shilling, has boosted private consumption. Uganda’s growth, expected at six per cent in 2024, is similarly supported by agricultural output, with additional gains from infrastructure projects and improving regional trade dynamics.

Côte d’Ivoire, achieving a 6.5 per cent growth rate, exemplifies how infrastructure investments, particularly in the digital and transportation sectors, can enhance productivity and investor confidence. The integration of digital infrastructure is not only expanding access to services but also creating new economic opportunities, thereby diversifying growth and reducing vulnerability to sector-specific shocks.

Inflation Control and Currency Stability

Inflation control efforts vary widely, with some countries managing to keep inflation within target ranges, which in turn supports consumer confidence and domestic demand. In South Africa, headline inflation remains within the Reserve Bank’s target band, allowing for potential policy rate reductions that could stimulate household consumption and investment growth in the medium term.

Angola’s inflationary pressures, although peaking in 2024, are anticipated to moderate as a result of tightened monetary policy and fiscal adjustments. Effective inflation management in these countries not only stabilizes domestic markets but also enhances their appeal to investors seeking predictable economic environments.

Investments in Infrastructure and Digital Connectivity

Structural reforms and public investment, according to the bank, have been pivotal in fostering resilience in certain economies while exposing vulnerabilities in others. In countries like Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda, investments in infrastructure and digital connectivity are driving more sustainable growth patterns.

These nations are leading the East African Community (EAC) with growth rates of 4.7 per cent in 2024, projected to rise to 5.7 per cent by 2025–26. Structural reforms in these regions, particularly in agriculture and infrastructure, are creating a more conducive environment for private sector growth and attracting foreign investment, which could serve as a model for other Sub-Saharan nations.