Three things Muhoozi bid is telling the country

About two weeks ago, I explained that the mobilisation and frenzy being generated around a Muhoozi presidency are not really preparation for any presidential election.

But, rather, preparation for uncertainty. These birthday parties and runs, upcountry tours, and formation of committees are meant to earn Muhoozi Kainerugaba a ‘presidential claim.’

Something like, should Museveni collapse and die, the MK team has to be able to claim—while forcefully securing the presidency—that they have been going around the country, have everything ready to complete the father’s term.

And Muhoozi carrying the blood of the would-be dead man, and with OBs in senior UPDF positions, the calculation is that this will be almost a bloodless takeover.

The Muhoozi presidential project has been around for a bit of time. But there is heightened energy and intensity nowadays: regional heads, committees and other teams have been established. There is more openness about the project, and seemingly serious and confident people—whom one would keep off this wagon—are loudly chanting Muhoozi’s greatness.

The man himself is flying around in a presidential chopper, which is statement of the father’s endorsement. More news coverage is devoted to the young general and his social media has become even more attractive for entertainment and gossip channels.

But if one looked outside and beyond this melodrama—far from the madding crowd—there are three things that ought to be understood that without saying a word, Muhoozi is telling the country about his father, the vibe inside the palace, his clan, and himself.

MUHOOZI AS CRISIS

If we could take any lessons from the fate of comrade brother John Patrick Amama Mbabazi, it is that showing one’s head as interested in taking that coveted chair after Museveni is dangerous business.

Thus, no one from within Museveni’s inner circle and broader NRM camp— however qualified and friendly—is willing to risk their lives showing interest in the presidential seat. Look, JPAM had been close friends and a confidant of Mr Museveni, going on to even earn himself the label of “super minister.”

It was even rumoured he ran the country on behalf or alongside Museveni, especially as regards ministerial appointment and intelligence coordination. Or so we thought! Having committed many crimes together, handing power to Mbabazi—arguably a competent and well-exposed fellow—would have been a wonderful exit window for Museveni.

It was a chance to retire with confidence that there will be no disturbance from the new guns in town. But he blew that up. In blowing up the JPAM window, Museveni threw his entire clan in a difficult dilemma: while they cannot and will not be alive forever, the man is violently uninterested in talking about succession.

Concerned by his legacy and how the beautiful regime-built lives will be destroyed, the clan and inner circle never stopped looking around for safer, acceptable alternatives. Finally, they realised that their best bet was the man’s son.

MUST DIE IN OFFICE

Museveni is prepared to die in the office. If there were any doubts about this, it is now loud and clear. His son is preparing or is being prepared for this moment.

And it had to be only his son. Because there is no way to start propping up any random person—however trusted they may be—who might become ambitious and impatient (but without the restraining limits of blood relation).

It has also been rumoured, and definitely believable, that Museveni does not really trust his son 100 per cent. But the dilemma he has is that any other potential persons might be in too much hurry; they might rush him to leave the stage before he actually runs out of life. Thus, not risking to be surprised, he has painstakingly decided to gamble with his son.

This is why despite the abundance of other more accomplished fellas in and around the inner circle, it is Muhoozi Kainerugaba, with all his well-publicised handicaps, and despite the lively possibility—as his social media work on major geopolitical issues attests—that might blow up the mission.

(Consider, for example, the polished and well-kempt in-laws such as Odrek Rwabwogo and Edwin Karugire or in the larger pool, which still has John Patrick Amama Mbabazi, Afande Mzee Sabiti, Gen. David Muhoozi or even my friend, journalist and power broker, Andrew Mwenda).

END IS NIGH

It becomes clear that there is consensus in the inner circle that finally, finally, Bwana Museveni’s end is nigh. Bwana Museveni, too, seems to agree this time, that this time, he will be going somewhere else. And thus, it is urgent that he prepares his son for any eventuality.

Perhaps it is only fair to say Museveni has lost many close friends in the last five years and most of them dying from natural causes: Emanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile, Elly Tumwine, Jacob Oulanyah, Paul Lokech, and more recently, Keith Muhakanizi. The accumulation of these deaths—plus his now wobbly and frail frame—have surely impressed upon him the fact of non-immortality.

Where is the opposition? Folks in the opposition have dismissed MK as madness and beer. While this could be undeniable, it ought to be understood that there is always a method to the madness.

There is an entire team choreographing this seeming randomness and craziness. They may not be as smooth as I have mapped above, but they are surely sleeplessly working.

I know, the thought of comrade Balaam Barugahara as prime minister comes across as funny and makes a joke of the entire thing. But so was the thought of MP Muhammad Ssegirinya as minister of Internal Affairs in Bobi Wine’s government.

yusufkajura@gmail.com

Indeed. Thank you @ubctvuganda 👏Incase someone out there missed the video😎 https://t.co/UuwnfOZ4gT pic.twitter.com/IkLMYz9SXx

— Kanyomozi District (@PatriqKanyomozi) April 18, 2023

The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.