Is this how Muhoozi Kainerugaba lost that tiny window? 

I have always wondered, if the Americans or Elon Musk woke up and decided to collapse Twitter, how will Ugandans hear from their presidential hopeful, Muhoozi Kainerugaba?

Or if they blocked his account—as they normally do when they deem one’s tweets offensive—where will he turn? Because it seems Twitter is his only, if not major, voice. Consider this also, since he is often tweeting about winning elections, has he and his handlers given thought about how ordinary folks on the streets of Kampala—millions without social media—access his visions?

How about folks in the countryside who are simply going about their wretched lives, without the pretensions of apps and devices. Or neither of this counts as long as the military is secure?

In all fairness, across the autocratic world (and even in the so-called democracies), relatives of presidents, or sons of presidents—immediately or after sometime—have replaced their fathers in presidential positions: Kim Jong-un in North Korea, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Ali Bongo in Gabon, George Bush in the United States, Joseph Kabila in DRC, Uhuru Kenyatta in Kenya, et cetera.

Not to mention many other sons of presidents/kings in the explicitly monarchical world. So, our friend, Muhoozi Kainerugaba isn’t really day-dreaming as regards becoming president after his father, there is possibility to become one.

But at the same time, many young men and women have terribly failed to replace their parents despite elaborate preparations. So, what are the odds and how is ours packaging himself in this wild chase? How much currency is there in these endless Twitter spats and birthday parties?

TWITTER WARS

Among other celebrities, it is President Donald Trump who most significantly contributed to turning Twitter into a major popular political app.

Having been an entertainment star before running and becoming president, and spending a great deal of time on the app, and issuing several unscripted remarks on this app after becoming president, the app gained a great deal of traction.

(Ironically, the owners then, kicked him off the same app he had helped make popular). Significantly transformed, with huge numbers of journalists and mainstream news outlets using the app, it has become a major platform for political messaging.

Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba—whose intentions to replace his father as president of Uganda have become more explicit in the past months—has been bombastic on this app. His messages have been intense, polarizing, and sometimes bordering on madness.

But as Shakespeare would tell us, there is always a method to the madness. And I think, [retired] journalist Andrew Mwenda, perhaps Gen. Muhoozi’s smartest handler, has had a major impact in packaging the soldier into a media-savvy dude.

Firstly, they have crafted a persona of a gangster, an online humourist of sorts. He is throwing one joke after another (the jokes aren’t the best, really), slurs, pictures of beautiful damsels, strong language.

The ambition is to insert self into the noisy Kampala social media world. They have attempted to stir as much controversy as possibly could—including outrightly, treasonous, abusive and sexist language. This has worked to a degree.

Secondly, they have crafted a persona of the opposition working within the NRM- government establishment. And this is Mwenda’s genius. Having closely followed Muhoozi’s father’s politics, Mwenda has often spoken and written about how Museveni cunningly cuts the figure of an opposition politician when meeting constituencies.

Museveni would publicly berate his MPs and ministers for failing the people. He is always the good guy. With the absence of serious opposition in the country, Muhoozi is now, like father, calling out corruption (he suggested arresting iron sheet thieves), and has also, you no gonna believe this, offered a return of term limits once he becomes president. Vintage Andrew Mwenda!

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

It is interesting that my political theorist friend, Mwenda (in his previous life), endlessly ridiculed “talking heads” on social media as living in a stupid bubble— lived in echo chambers. That they were disconnected from social realty.

Firstly, it is bamboozling he has not sent his product onto the more public-engaged streets such as Luganda speaking talk shows on CBS Fm, or even the English- speaking talk shows such as the NBS TV’s Morning Breeze, NTV’s On the Spot or the Capital Gang. Has he forgotten about the delusional echo chambers of social media?

Secondly, clearly Muhoozi’s intense campaign on social media, birthday parties and birthday runs are not campaigns for elections. They are preparations for uncertainty—disaster preparedness. Something like, we need to make so much presidential-aspirational noise, go around the country, have civilian committees, and be ready for disaster.

Should the old man collapse in some misfortune—may the Almighty forbid—we (as the MK team, so-called) should be able to announce ourselves as ready to lead and then use our networks in the armed forces and grab power. (Indeed, this plan actually has the endorsement and funding of the old man himself ).

Sounds like a nice plan: I just hope this presidential hopeful does not become invested in his father’s death. (Unless he is willing to do it loudly and openly—in say a coup). And as long the old man lives, these MK folks will organise more and more birthday parties until all their hairs and beards turn grey.

On the other hand, and more seriously, being that presidents in Africa have tended to be appointed by outside hands—and through elections of course—comrade MK seems to be closing his window with his tweets on international geo-political issues (and I should add, his sexist talk)! His major platform is fast becoming his major undoing.

yusufkajura@gmail.com

The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.