Muhoozi’s mobilisations could be directly inspired by Museveni

My supposition is that Museveni, being a realist, must have tasked Muhoozi to popularise himself around the country.

Museveni most probably reasons that even if they fake a coup to install Muhoozi in power, a Muhoozi presidency may not be sustained for long or, it might be sustained, largely, by violence if a significant population of Ugandans doesn’t have any enthusiasm for the same presidency.

Museveni who, in 1986 or thereabouts, had an option of choosing between presiding over an outright military government or a popular government with republican institutions and regular elections, chose the latter because he reckoned that it would be more possible to sustain such a government than a full-blown military dictatorship, particularly because Uganda is an ethnically and religiously diverse society which requires a national leader to make many compromises.

As years have worn on, however, Museveni’s government has, at the core, become a military dictatorship with a very thin coating of democracy.

This is because Museveni and his men have, as they were naturally meant to, significantly lost popularity. Museveni now has to lead people who are no longer interested in his leadership and the most effective way of doing that is by “appropriately” inflicting violence and spending colossal amounts of money to compromise numerous opposing groups.

Museveni who decided in 1986 or so to form a broad-based government is the same Museveni who is facing immense difficulty with maintaining grip on power today.

The reason behind forming a broad-based government, facilitated by a combination of money, persuasion, mass mobilisation and well-calculated violence against unpopular insurgents, was to acquire citizen legitimacy which would, in effect, create stability in reconstructing and managing the state and the economy.

Museveni knows that the reason he is having difficulties with managing the country now is because he has significantly lost citizen approval.

The same Museveni, therefore, can’t hand over power to Muhoozi without ensuring that his son is significantly popular, as that would almost automatically make the advent of the new presidency get greeted with profound and immediate turbulence.

His early years of presidency, when he was overly popular, contrasted with his late years of presidency when he has lost so much credibility and popularity, must have prompted Museveni to deeply appreciate the importance of popularity among citizens.

It is Museveni’s deep appreciation of popularity’s importance that is going to make Muhoozi comb every corner of this country in the hope to secure his father’s blessing.

The author is a political and social commentator